Infinity Journal

Does the fall of the Liberal Democratic Party necessarily mean that Japan’s security relationship with the US will change?
Not really. It is important to separate the rhetoric for public consumption from the actual government policies. The present leaders of the Democratic Party of Japan were members of the LDP until the late 1990s and do not belong to the more radical wing of the DP. In addition to that Japan’s foreign policy is virtually immune to popular opinion. It is important to remember the power of the bureaucracy and industry in Japan. The iron triangle of the bureaucracy, big business, and the government may have seen a slight change in one of its corners but the overall structure remains the same. It is virtually inconceivable that the present Japanese government is going to depart from Japan’s historic post-war role as America’s unsinkable aircraft carrier. Nevertheless there are some superficial issues that will probably receive some attention from the present government such as the restructuring of American military bases in Okinawa and the debate over the secret tacit agreement of permitting vessels armed with nuclear warheads from entering Japanese waters. Those two issues are mainly symbolic in that the troop level s will remain relatively stable under the proposals presently under discussion and the new government will only pay lip service to the non-nuclear position of the anti-nuclear lobby. Concerns such as China’s growing blue sea navy as well as North Korea’s increasing nuclear capability will hamper any radical changes to the security relationship.
There is also a normative dimension to the question posed at the beginning of this discussion. Would Japan’s image as a middle power improve by taking an unaligned pacific posture regarding foreign policy? Not necessarily. A more independent foreign policy would mean that Japan would have to spend political capital on contentious issues rather than just supporting the American line. This would take away Japan’s attention from its concern on issues related to human security and international development. Japan’s foreign policy based on the promotion of Human Security necessitates a strong American security umbrella. Trade and control of SLORCS (Sea Lanes of Regional Commerce) are prime concerns of the Japanese government and its pacifism depends on the US Navy defending those sea lanes.
What should Japan’s role be? Japan should continue to promote the Human Security agenda of the promotion of “freedom from want” and “freedom from fear” under the American Security Umbrella. Small powers in the Asia Pacific want to see a Japanese foreign policy that can counter Chinese influence through development aid and the promotion of human rights. The Japanese International Cooperation Agency can be more effective tool than a strengthened Japanese role in traditional foreign policy. Furthermore it should be noted that those proposing a more independent Japanese foreign policy are at the two extremes of the political spectrum. While the extreme right favors the “normalization” of Japan through the development of an offensive military capability, those on the left favor and independent pacifism separate from the American security umbrella. Neither extreme is compatible with human security in that both would divert necessary resources away from people-centered development aid and security and funnel it to a costly independent diplomatic offensive or an even more costly independent offensive capability.
Japan’s true strength lies in its role model status for the rest of the Asia Pacific region. It managed to develop rapidly and to become the second largest economy in the world. In addition to that it is unique in that it has developed its own theory of foreign relations based on human security and development cooperation. Japan can become a world power in terms of promoting cutting edge international norms such as environmental conservation and human centered security. Finally, both the US and Japan need each other so that they can play good cop and bad cop with unruly countries in the region. Neither power can do without the other.